GCI Forex News - AUD/USD: Aussie trading lower despite upbeat Chinese economic data

AUDUSD Movement

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, AUD weakened 0.18% against the USD to close at 1.0545, amid unimpressive Australian employment data.

LME Copper prices rose 0.6% or $12.5/MT to $2003.3/MT. Aluminium prices rose 0.2% or $17.3/MT to $7927.5/MT.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.0517, with the AUD trading 0.27% lower from yesterday’s close, despite positive economic data from China, Australia’s biggest trading partner.

Chinese gross domestic product rose 7.9% annually in the Q4 FY2012, higher than market consensus of a 7.8% expansion and compared to a 7.4% growth reported in the Q3 FY2012. Meanwhile, nation’s industrial production rose more-than-expected by 10.3% (YoY) in December, compared to a 10.1% rise recorded in November. Moreover, retail sales advanced 15.2% annually in December, higher than market estimates and compared to a 14.9% increase posted in the previous month.

Separately, the National Bureau of Statistics reported that the house price index in China eased 0.04% in December, compared to a 0.7% decline recorded in the previous month. Separately, the MNI flash business sentiment indicator rose to a reading of 54.9 in January, compared to a reading of 52.2 reported in last month.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.0487, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.0457. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.0554, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0591.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

GCI Forex News - USD/JPY: Yen fell on speculation of central bank’s easing action

USDJPY Movement

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD strengthened 1.36% against the JPY and closed at 89.82. The Japanese Yen fell on speculation of aggressive policy easing by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) next week. Investors speculated that the BoJ next week would consider removing the 0.1% floor on short-term interest rates and commit to open-ended asset buying until the 2.0% inflation target is reached.

Also, yesterday Economics Minister, Akira Amari, stated that he still believes that the currency market is “in a phase of correcting from excessive Yen strength”.

In economic news, the Department Stores Association in Japan reported that nationwide department store sales retreated 1.3% annually in December, compared to a 2.2% rise recorded in November.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 89.97, with the USD trading 0.17% higher from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 88.68, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 87.38. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 90.75, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 91.52.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

GCI Forex News - EUR/USD: Euro rose following successful Spanish bond auction

EURUSD Movement

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, EUR rose 0.63% against the USD and closed at 1.3375, after Spain successfully sold over €4.5 billion of bonds maturing in 2015, 2018 and 2041. The Euro further cemented gains as risk appetite increased among investors after the release of better-than-expected employment and housing data in the US.

The seasonally adjusted housing starts in the US rose 12.1% (MoM) to annual rate of 954,000 in December, the highest annual rate since June 2008 and from the a downwardly revised 4.3% drop or 851,000 starts in November. Moreover, for the week ended 12 January 2013, initial jobless claims declined to 335,000, the lowest level since January 2008 and compared to the previous week’s revised figure of 372,000. However, for the week ended 5 January 2013, continuing claims rose to 3.214 million, compared to the preceding week’s revised level of 3.127 million.

In its monthly bulletin, the European Central Bank (ECB) indicated that the inflation in the Euro-area would decline below 2% during 2013 and that region’s economy should start to gradually recover from recession later this year. However, it also added that risks to the economic outlook remain on the downside.

The greenback came under pressure, after the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Dennis Lockhart, stated that he expects the central bank to continue with the large asset purchases well beyond mid 2013 in order to achieve sustained improvement in the labour market.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.3386, with the EUR trading marginally higher from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.3309, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3232. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3428, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3470.

Investors keenly eye the US Reuters/Michigan consumer sentiment index data due later today.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

GCI Forex News - USD/JPY: Japanese tertiary industry activity index drops in November

USDJPY Movement

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD weakened 0.69% against the JPY and closed at 88.84.

In Japan, the seasonally adjusted consumer confidence index in Japan fell to a reading of 39.2 in December, from 39.4 in November.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 87.97, with the USD trading 0.98% lower from yesterday’s close.

In Japan, the seasonally adjusted tertiary industry activity index fell 0.3% (MoM) in November, compared to a 0.1% contraction recorded in October.

The pair is expected to find support at 87.75, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 87.26. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 88.76, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 89.28.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

GCI Forex News - GBP/USD: Pound struggles to hold ground against the greenback

GBPUSD Movement

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, GBP fell 0.38% against the USD and closed at 1.6001, as global growth concerns coupled with ongoing uncertainty over the UK’s role in the European Union continued to weigh on demand for the Pound.

Sentiment weakened after the World Bank cut its forecast for global growth for 2013. The lender also indicated that the UK’s economy would grow by 1.1% this year, well below its June forecast for 1.6% growth, adding to fears of a recession in the UK.

Sentiment on the Pound was also hit as political pressure mounted on British Prime Minister, David Cameron, to renegotiate elements of the country’s EU membership, ahead of a speech on Friday in which he will outline plans to change Britain’s relationship with Europe.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.5989, with the GBP trading marginally lower from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.5953, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.5918. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.6047, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.6106.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

GCI Forex News - EUR/USD: Euro dips on global growth concerns

EURUSD Movement

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, EUR declined marginally against the USD and closed at 1.3291, after the World Bank trimmed its 2013 Euro-zone growth forecast, prompting investors to sell the Euro and shore-up dollar positions.

Additionally, the German Economy Ministry indicated that the nation’s economy would grow just 0.4% in 2013, down from its previous forecast for 1% growth.

However, the Euro contained its losses for brief period, after the European Central Bank policymaker, Ewald Nowotny, in contrast with the Euro-group Chairman Jean-Claude Juncker’s comments, that the euro was “dangerously high”, stated that the current exchange rate of the Euro against the Dollar is not a concern for him and he does not expect the currency to keep appreciating in the longer term.

In a key development, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) decided to disburse €3.24 billion of bailout money to Greece after the Euro member successfully carried out a bond buyback and passed further budget measures to ease the country’s debt load.

In the Euro-zone, consumer price inflation remained unchanged at 2.2% annually in December, in line with initial estimates. Meanwhile, core inflation edged up to 1.5% in December, from 1.4% in November.

Meanwhile in the US, the latest Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Beige Book survey found that the US economy improved at the end of 2012. It indicated that activity across all 12 districts expanded at a modest or moderate pace in December 2012 and early January 2013.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.3284, with the EUR trading marginally lower from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.3252, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3221. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3320, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3357.

In Europe, the much awaited ECB monthly report is due for release later today. Meanwhile, in the US investor look forward to the housing starts, building permits and initial jobless claims data.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

GCI Forex News - EUR/USD: Euro retreated as debt ceiling fears bolstered demand for the greenback

EURUSD Movement

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, EUR fell 0.59% against the USD and closed at 1.3298, as investors avoided riskier currencies amid US debt ceiling concerns.

Concerns heightened after Fitch Ratings reiterated its warning that a delay in raising the US government’s debt ceiling would lead to a formal review of the country’s AAA sovereign credit rating.

Economic data from Europe was uninspiring, as German economy shrank at the end of 2012, an official report showed, as weaker global demand and recessions throughout Southern Europe triggered a slide in business investment. Losses in the Euro were capped after Euro-zone trade surplus widened to €11.0 billion in November, from €7.4 billion in October.

Additionally, consumer price index in Germany rose 0.9% (MoM) in December, while on an annual basis, inflation grew 2.1% in December. According to MINEFA, France’s budget deficit widened to €103.4 billion for January to November 2012 period, compared to a deficit of €94.6 billion recorded in October.

Late yesterday, Euro-group leader, Jean-Claude Juncker, cautioned that the Euro’s gain against the US Dollar in the past six months is posing a fresh threat to the European economy just as it shows signs of escaping the debt crisis.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.329, with the EUR trading marginally lower from yesterday’s close.

This morning, the World Bank indicated that the global economy might expand by 2.4% in 2013 compared to an earlier forecast of a 3.0% growth, citing weakness in developed economies.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.3240, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3190. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3364, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3438.

Trading trends in the pair today are expected to be determined by the release of the consumer price index data, while in the US investors eye the Fed’s Beige Book, industrial production and the consumer price index data.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

GCI Forex News - USD/JPY: Machine orders increase in Japan

USDJPY Movement

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD weakened 0.69% against the JPY and closed at 88.84.

The Japanese Yen rose after nation’s Economy Minister, Akira Amari stated that the nation faces risks from any excessive decline in the Yen.

Meanwhile, on the economic front, machine tool orders in Japan declined 27.5% (YoY) to ¥84.07 billion in December, following a 21.3% drop recorded in the previous month. Meanwhile, the number of bankruptcy cases declined 13.8% in December, faster than the decline of 12.0% registered in the previous month.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 87.97, with the USD trading 0.98% lower from yesterday’s close.

In morning releases, Japanese machine orders rose 3.9% in November, higher than market forecasts and compared to a 2.6% rise in October. Meanwhile, the domestic Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI) advanced 0.3% (MoM) in December, compared to a flat reading posted last month.

The pair is expected to find support at 87.58, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 87.20. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 88.72, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 89.48.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.